Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-1980, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?

　　 The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.

　　 Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.

　　 Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (inconstant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies—to which heavy industry has shifted—have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed.

　　 One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist's commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.

　　 31. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is

　　 [A]global inflation. [B]reduction in supply.

　　 [C]fast growth in economy. [D]Iraq's suspension of exports.

　　 32. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if

　　 [A]price of crude rises. [B]commodity prices rise.

　　 [C]consumption rises. [D]oil taxes rise.

　　 33. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries

　　 [A]heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive.

　　 [B]income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices.

　　 [C]manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed.

　　 [D]oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP.

　　 34. We can draw a conclusion from the text that

　　 [A]oil-price shocks are less shocking now.

　　 [B]inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks.

　　 [C]energy conservation can keep down the oil prices.

　　 [D]the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry.

　　 35. From the text we can see that the writer seems

　　 [A]optimistic. [B]sensitive. [C]gloomy. [D]scared.

　　名师解析

　　 31. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is 最近的油价上涨的主要原因是

　　 [A]global inflation. 全球通货膨胀。

　　 [B]reduction in supply.供应量减少。

　　 [C]fast growth in economy. 快速的经济增长。

　　 [D]Iraq's suspension of exports. 伊拉克暂时停止石油出口。

　　【答案】 B

　　【考点】 事实细节题。

　　【分析】 根据题干可以定位到第一段的第二句话“Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December.”，说明由于石油输出国决定降低供给量，使得油价上升。所以本题的答案是[B]。[D]不是该现象的主要原因，因为“OPEC”的相关决定才是能够影响石油价格的走势的主要原因。

　　 32. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if

　　从文中可以推断出，如果________，汽油的零售价格将会剧烈上升。

　　 [A]price of crude rises. 原油价格上升。

　　 [B]commodity prices rise. 日用品价格上升。

　　 [C]consumption rises. 消费上升。

　　 [D]oil taxes rise. 油税上升。

　　【答案】 D

　　【考点】 推断题。

　　【分析】 根据题干可以定位到第三段的第三句话“In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price，so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past..”意思是说“在欧洲，税占汽油的零售价的五分之四，因此相比以往，原油的价格变化对汽油的影响不会很明显”。也就是说税的增加会导致汽油价格的猛涨，而原油价格的变化带来的影响不会很大。本题一个理解的难度是“muted effect”，另外一个是“pump price”。“mute”表示“哑巴的，无声的，沉默的”，和“effect”连用，表示“影响不明显”；而“pump price”是一个很形象的说法，“pump”指的是“泵”，这里很形象用“pump”指代“汽油”。根据上述分析，可以得出答案是[D]。

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