Numbers get a bad press. Almost alone of the academic disciplines, mathematics is one where expressions of ignorance are more of a boast than a shameful admission (imagine admitting at a dinner party that you can’t read). Yet numbers are more important than ever. They are the language of most of science and much of government, two forces that do much to shape people’s lives. They are the nervous system of any modern country, marshalled in support of arguments over everything from defence to which diseases should be treated.

Happily for the number-shy, help is at hand. A book about numbers and how to interpret them doesn’t sound like interesting bedtime reading. Yet in the hands of Michael Blastland and Andrew Dilnot, respectively producer and presenter of “More or Less”, a BBC radio programme on the subject, that is what it becomes.

The chapters proceed from simple concepts to more complicated ones, starting with the simplest of all: working out how big a number is. That is harder than you might think. The British government’s promise to spend £300m ($600m) over five years on child-care looks impressive at first glance. Only after working through the calculations does one realise that it amounts to only £1.15 a week for every family.

The authors avoid a hectoring tone. Their prose is light-hearted and never condescending. Amusing (or occasionally frightening) examples make theoretical arguments instantly accessible. The authors point out that most people have a higher-than-average number of feet (it takes only a single man with one foot to bring the average below two). Incomes are the other way around: thanks to a few billionaires, most people earn less than the average.

Later on, trickier and more emotive subjects are tackled. Much of the second half is taken up with the devilishly tricky business of trying to extract causation from correlation. One such issue is the so-called “cancer clusters”. A mobile-phone mast is erected in a village. Soon after, cancer rates rise to several times the national average. But masts are common, and some villages are bound to develop high cancer rates through nothing more sinister than sheer bad luck. Proving correlation is easy, but proving causation—despite how obvious the links may seem—is not. The authors make the sobering point that mortality rates for doctors vary so much that, even if he had been constantly monitored, Harold Shipman (a British doctor who murdered at least 200 patients) would have racked up a body-count of several dozen before coming to official attention.

The central problem, as the authors admit, is that numbers can often be deeply counter-intuitive. Individuals find it difficult to cope with the vast quantities of cash consumed by a modern nation state, and everyday rules of thumb can sometimes lead to utterly wrong conclusions. That is what makes this book so valuable: it provides a reliable guide to a treacherous subject, giving its readers the mental ammunition to make sense of official claims. That it manages to make them laugh at the same time is a rare and welcome feat.

1. Which one of the following statements is TRUE of status quo of mathematics?

[A] One is cracking oneself up when expressing ignorance of mathematics.

[B] Mathematics is only discipline to tolerate the shame of knowing nothing about numbers.

[C] The shame of admitting that you can not read at a dinner party is paramount of admitting that you do not know about mathematics.

[D] Expression of ignorance in mathematics is a boast not only in the academic disciplines but also in other fields.

2. The style of “More or Less” by Michael Blastland and Andrew Dilnot can be described as_____.

[A] detailed and accessible

[B] technical and illuminating

[C] professional and inviting

[D] theoretical and humorous

3. The author of the article uses the example of average number of feet and average income to demonstrate that _____.

[A] to correctly understand the meaning of numbers is sometimes very tricky

[B] people can understand better about statistical data by comparing them with most common phenomenon

[C] the book helps people learn about the secret of numbers through interesting and daily examples

[D] the way of calculating average income is the opposite to that of calculating the average number of feet

4.Some villages develop high cancer rates through sheer bad luck other than masts because_____.

[A] they could not sense any link between these two phenomena.

[B] they can only find some vague correlation between them without solid evidence

[C] there are not enough proofs to demonstrate that mast could raise cancer rate.

[D] they could not deduce a reasonable relation of the cause and effect on the concerning issues

5. According to the authors of “More or Less”, the main point they want to demonstrate is that_____.

[A] numbers are very difficult to understand

[B] numbers could be cheating in most occasions.

[C] numbers can subtly sensed by intuition.

[D] numbers could shape people’s minds into more reasonable.

篇章剖析：

这篇文章主要讲述了Michael Blastland 和Andrew Dilnot撰写的一本有关数学的书。第一段讲述人们对数学的认识和数学的作用;第二段讲述他们的这本书可以扭转人们的习惯看法。第三、四、五段讲述了该书的内容和特点。第六段讲述了该书的重点。

词汇注释：

marshal v. 配置，汇集 hector v. 虚张声势

condescend v. 屈就 devilishly adv. 过分地

难句突破：

(1) They are the nervous system of any modern country, marshalled in support of arguments over everything from defence to which diseases should be treated.

[主体句式] They are the nervous system…

[结构分析] 这是一个复合句，marshalled …分词结构用来修饰system; which引导的是宾语从句。

[句子译文] 数字还是任何一个现代国家的神经系统，可以支持各种各样的论点，包括从国防事务到哪种疾病需要治疗等各种议题。

(2) The authors make the sobering point that mortality rates for doctors vary so much that, even if he had been constantly monitored, Harold Shipman (a British doctor who murdered at least 200 patients) would have racked up a body-count of several dozen before coming to official attention.

[主体句式] The authors make the sobering point that…

[结构分析] 这是一个复合句。That引导的是the sobering point的同位语从句，在该从句中，even if 引导的是状语从句。

[句子译文] 作者清楚地指出由于医生手上病人的死亡率差异很大，即使Harold Shipman(一名英国医生，曾杀死至少200名病人)一直受到监视，他还是会在杀死了几十个病人后才会引起官方的注意。

题目分析：

[答案]A

[难度系数] ☆☆☆

[分析] 细节题。根据第一段“Numbers get a bad press. Almost alone of the academic disciplines, mathematics is one where expressions of ignorance are more of a boast than a shameful admission (imagine admitting at a dinner party that you can’t read)”，除了在专业学术领域外，说自己不懂数学更多的是自夸，而不是丢脸的事情。因此，选项种A符合题意。

[答案]C

[难度系数] ☆☆☆☆

[分析]细节题。根据第四段“The authors avoid a hectoring tone. Their prose is light-hearted and never condescending. Amusing (or occasionally frightening) examples make theoretical arguments instantly accessible”以及最后一段的最后一句话“That it manages to make them laugh at the same time is a rare and welcome feat”，两位作者避免用虚张声势的口吻，文字平易近人，但不降格，还有一定的理论性，而且比较有趣。选项中C最为符合。

[答案] C

[难度系数] ☆☆☆☆

[分析] 推理题。这个例子出现在文章的第四段，前面作者先说明了这本书的特点是“Amusing (or occasionally frightening) examples make theoretical arguments instantly accessible”，后面的例子正是用来说明这句话，因此只有C选项是正确的。D显然是错误的，而A和B选项则具有较大的干扰性。但是要注意这两个选项可以说是该书作者举例的目的，而不是文章作者用这个例子的目的，这两个不同的目的要区分开。

[答案] D

[难度系数] ☆☆☆

[分析] 细节题，根据第六段，这些村民只认为高的癌症发病率是坏运气的原因，因为他们看不到天线可能是导致发病的这种因果关系，而本段也是主要说这个问题，这是个例子而已。因此，答案为D选项。

[答案] B

[难度系数] ☆☆

[分析] 推理题。根据最后一段第一句话“The central problem, as the authors admit, is that numbers can often be deeply counter-intuitive”，该书重点在于数字常和人们直觉相反，有一定的表象性和欺骗性。因此，答案为B选项。

参考译文：

数字类的书籍销量往往不好。除了在专业学科领域外，承认自己不懂数学更多是一种自夸，而不是丢脸的事(设想在一次晚宴上承认自己不识字)。但是现在数字比过去重要多了，它们是众多科学学科和许多政府使用的语言，这两种力量对于人们生活的塑造至关重要。数字还是任何一个现代国家的神经系统，可以支持各种各样的论点，包括从国防事务到哪种疾病需要治疗等各种议题。

对于那些不懂数字的人来说，幸运的是帮助就在眼前。一本关于数字及如何解读数字的书听起来不像是那种有趣的枕边读物，但是在Michael Blastland 和Andrew Dilnot的手里，一切却恰恰相反。他们两个人分别是BBC电台节目“或多或少”的制作人和推荐人。

该书的章节从简单概念开始，一直讲述到复杂的概念，最开始是最简单的：算出数字有多大。这可能要比你想像的难得多。英国政府承诺5年内在儿童护理方面投入三亿英镑(六亿美元)，这个数字乍一看很大，但是只有计算一下大家才能意识到这相当于每个家庭每周有1.15英镑。

两位作者没有使用那种虚张声势的口吻，他们的文字非常平易近人，但又决非降格。好玩的(有时吓人的)例子使得其理论很容易能让人理解。作者指出大多数人都比平均身高高出一点来(一个人只要矮一英尺，就能使平均身高降低两英尺)。而收入则恰恰相反，正是因为少数几个亿万富翁的存在，才使得大多数人的实际工资比平均工资要低。

往后就是一些更难、更微妙的问题了。后半本书中大部分都是关于从联系中找因果关系的问题。其中一个例子就是所谓的“癌症群”。某个村庄安了移动电话天线，很快这里的癌症发病率就高出了全国平均发病率的几倍。天线是很普通的，而且一些村民就认为高的癌症发病率只是由于坏运气的原因。证明存在某种联系非常容易，但是要证明因果关系就非常难了，虽然看起来这种联系显而易见。作者清楚地指出由于医生手上病人的死亡率差异很大，即使Harold Shipman(一名英国医生，曾杀死至少200名病人)一直受到监视，他还是会在杀死了几十个病人后才会引起官方的注意。

作者承认，该书的重点在于说明数字经常和人们直觉是相反的。人们发现很难清楚认识到现代国家消费的资金数额， 而日常的经验法则有时会得出完全错误的结论。正因为这样才使得该书看起来有很高的价值：它提供了看待微妙问题的可靠方法，让读者明白如何读懂官方的宣告。而这本书又让人哈哈大笑，这也是一种少有的、受人欢迎的技巧。