When there is blood in the water, it is only natural that dorsal fins swirl around excitedly. Now that America’s housing market is ailing, predators have their sights on the country’s credit-card market. Analysts at Goldman Sachs reckon that credit-card losses could reach $99 billion if contagion spreads from subprime mortgages to other forms of consumer credit. Signs of strain are clearly visible. There are rises in both the charge-off and delinquency rates, which measure the share of balances that are uncollectable or more than 30 days late respectively. HSBC announced last month that it had taken a $1.4 billion charge in its American consumer-finance business, partly because of weakness among card borrowers.

It is too early to panic, though. Charge-offs and delinquencies are still low. According to Moody’s, a rating agency, the third-quarter delinquency rate of 3.89% was almost a full percentage point below the historical average. The deterioration in rates can be partly explained by technical factors. A change in America’s personal-bankruptcy laws in 2005 led to an abrupt fall in bankruptcy filings, which in turn account for a big chunk of credit-card losses; the number of filings (and thus charge-off rates) would be rising again, whether or not overall conditions for borrowers were getting worse.

The industry also reports solid payment rates, which show how much of their debt consumers pay off each month. And confidence in credit-card asset-backed securities is pretty firm despite paralysis in other corners of structured finance. Dennis Moroney of TowerGroup, a research firm, predicts that issuance volumes for 2007 will end up being 25% higher than last year.

Direct channels of infection between the subprime-mortgage crisis and the credit-card market certainly exist: consumers are likelier to load up on credit-card debt now that home-equity loans are drying up. But card issuers look at cash flow rather than asset values, so falling house prices do not necessarily trigger a change in borrowers’ creditworthiness. They may even work to issuers’ advantage. The incentives for consumers to keep paying the mortgage decrease if properties are worth less than the value of the loan; card debt rises higher up the list of repayment priorities as a result.

Card issuers are also able to respond much more swiftly and flexibly to stormier conditions than mortgage lenders are, by changing interest rates or altering credit limits. That should in theory reduce the risk of a rapid repricing of assets. "We are not going to wake up one day and totally revalue the loans," says Gary Perlin, Capital One’s chief financial officer.

If a sudden subprime-style meltdown in the credit-card market is improbable, the risks of a sustained downturn are much more real. If lower house prices and a contraction in credit push America into recession, the industry will undoubtedly face a grimmer future. Keep watching for those dorsal fins.

1. The author makes mention of dorsal fins which are irrelevant to the topic in order to _____.

[A] make people alert to the potential danger

[B] attract the readers’ attention by presenting an interesting phenomenon

[C] make people realize the graveness of the issue by showing a similar case

[D] make the passage more vivid by imparting new knowledge to readers

2. Rises in the charge-off and delinquency rate indicate _____.

[A] the deterioration of the subprime mortgage

[B] the inadequate ability of card borrowers

[C] the influence of the technical factors

[D] the change in relevant laws

3. According to the third paragraph, the number of bankruptcy fillings would be rising again because_____.

[A] there is a change in America’s personal-bankruptcy laws

[B] the charge-offs and delinquencies are still low

[C] the influence of the personal-bankruptcy laws has been digested

[D] the overall conditions for borrowers are getting worse

4. The subprime-mortgage crisis influnces the credit-card market in that_____.

[A] the fall of asset values affects the card borrowers’ creditworthiness

[B] the decrease in the mortgage payment leads to the rises of the card debt

[C] the drying up of the home-equity loans spur consumers’ incectives to repay the card debt

[D] the falling house prices makes the card debt rising higher

5. According to the author, the credit-card market will more likely be threatened by_____.

[A] a gradual downward tendency

[B] a rapid collapse

[C] a sustained trend of lowering price

[D] the accumulation of economic recession

1. The author makes mention of dorsal fins which are irrelevant to the topic in order to _____.1.   背鳍与本文主题无关，作者提到背鳍是为了_____。
[A] make people alert to the potential danger[A] 提醒人们注意潜在的危险
[B] attract the readers’ attention by presenting an interesting phenomenon[B] 通过描述一个有趣的现象来吸引读者的眼球
[C] make people realize the graveness of the issue by showing a similar case[C] 通过一个类似的案例让人们意识到事情的严重性
[D] make the passage more vivid by imparting new knowledge to readers[D] 通过向读者传授新的知识来使得文章更生动
[答案]A
[难度系数] ☆☆☆
[分析]推理题。文章在首尾都提到了背鳍。开头提到一旦水中有血，背鳍就会变得兴奋起来，接着就提到美国房地产衰退后，捕食者将目光转移到信用卡市场。末尾提到要留心背鳍。可以看出，作者提到背鳍是一种隐喻，意味着危险，因此选项A 比较符合题意。

2. Rises in the charge-off and delinquency rate indicate _____.2.损耗率和逾期债款率的升高意味着_____。
[A]  the deterioration of the subprime mortgage[A] 次级抵押贷款恶化
[B]  the inadequate ability of card borrowers[B] 信用卡借贷人还贷能力较弱
[C]  the influence of the technical factors[C] 技术因素的影响
[D] the change in relevant laws[D] 相关法律的变化
[答案]B
[难度系数] ☆☆
[分析] 推理题。文章在第一段提到，信用卡市场的疲软迹象已经出现，接着就提到这两个数字，损耗率和逾期债款率分别代表无法收回来的收支差额的份额和晚付了30天的份额，接着还举例说香港汇丰银行的14亿美元费用就是部分因为信用卡借款人偿还能力较弱。因此，这两项升高表明信用卡市场出现问题。A不符合；B，是信用卡市场问题；CD在第二段提到，是引起这两项升高的部分原因所在。因此，答案为B。

3. According to the third paragraph, the number of bankruptcy fillings would be rising again because_____.3.   根据第三段，破产申请数量会再次增多是因为_____。
[A] there is a change in America’s personal-bankruptcy laws[A] 美国个人破产法发生了变化
[B] the charge-offs and delinquencies are still low[B] 损耗率和逾期债款率还很低
[C] the influence of the change in the personal-bankruptcy laws has been digested[C] 个人贷款法律变化的影响已经被消化了
[D] the overall conditions for borrowers are getting worse[D] 贷款人整体的情形趋于糟糕
[答案]C
[难度系数] ☆☆☆
[分析] 推理题。文章第三段最后提到不管贷款人整体的情况是否变坏，破产申请数量都会再次增多。前面又提到是因为2005年美国个人破产法有一定变化，破产申请才急剧降低，而后引发了信用卡市场的一些问题。因此，这项法律实行一段时间后，大家已经消化了这个变化，趋势又会恢复正常。答案C最为贴切。

4. The subprime-mortgage crisis influnces the credit-card market in that_____.4.   次级抵押贷款危机影响信用卡市场在于_____。
[A] the fall of asset values affects the card borrowers’ creditworthiness[A]资产价值的降低影响了信用卡借款人的信用度
[B] the decrease in the mortgage payment leads to the rises of the card debt[B]抵押支付的减少导致了信用卡贷款的增加。
[C] the drying up of the home-equity loans spur consumers’ incectives to repay the card debt[C]家庭资产贷款的衰竭激发消费者偿还信用卡贷款的积极性。
[D] the falling house prices makes the card debt rising higher[D]房屋价格的下降使得信用卡贷款增加了更多。
[答案]C
[难度系数] ☆☆☆
[分析] 细节题。文章第四段提到次级抵押贷款危机和信用卡市场之间有直接感染的通道，因为家庭资产贷款衰竭，借款人就更愿意把信用卡的贷款偿还清；而且因为房屋的价格比贷款还低，大家就不愿意还房屋抵押贷款，因此信用卡贷款偿还在偿还方面位居前列。选项中C符合这种推理，为正确答案。

5. According to the author, the credit-card market will more likely be threatened by_____.5. 依作者来看，信用卡市场更可能受到_____的威胁。
[A] a gradual downward tendency[A] 缓慢的衰退趋势[B] a rapid collapse[B] 快速的崩溃
[C] a sustained trend of lowering prices[C] 价格持续走低[D] the accumulation of economic recession[D] 经济衰退日趋严重
[答案]A
[难度系数] ☆☆☆

[分析] 细节题。文章最后一段指出，次级抵押贷款式的突然垮台可能不会出现在信用卡市场，更容易出现的是一种持续不断的低迷。因此，信用卡市场更可能受到这种缓慢的低迷趋势的影响。答案A最为符合题意。